Risk factors for lymph node metastasis and survival of patients with nonampullary duodenal carcinoid tumors treated with endoscopic therapy versus surgical resection: analysis of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program

Background and aims: Endoscopic therapy (ET) has been used to treat nonampullary duodenal neuroendocrine tumors (NAD-NETs) ≤10 mm in size, but data on long-term outcomes are limited. In addition, management of 11- to 19-mm NAD-NETs is not well defined because of variable estimates of risk of metastasis. We aimed to determine the prevalence and risk factors of metastasis of NAD-NETs ≤19 mm and evaluate the long-term survival of patients after ET as compared with radical surgery.

Methods: The Surveillance Epidemiology and End Result database was used to identify 1243 patients with T1-2 histologically confirmed NAD-NETs ≤19 mm in size. Cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) were calculated.

Results: Overall, 4.8% of cases had metastasis at the time of diagnosis, with lower prevalence in ≤10-mm lesions (3.1%) versus 11- to 19-mm lesions (11.7%, P < .001). The risk factors for metastases included invasion to the muscularis propria (odds ratio, 25.95; 95% confidence interval, 9.01-76.70), age <65 years (odds ratio, 1.93), submucosal involvement (odds ratio, 3.1), and 11 to 19 mm in size (vs ≤10 mm). In patients with well- to moderately differentiated T1-2N0M0 NAD-NETs ≤19 mm confined to the mucosa/submucosa who underwent ET or surgery, the 5-year CSS was 100%. The 5-year OS was similar between the ≤10-mm and 11- to 19-mm groups (86.6% vs 91.0%, P = .31) and the ET and surgery groups (87.4% vs 87.5%, P = .823).

Conclusions: In NAD-NETs, invasion to the muscularis propria is the strongest risk factor for metastasis. In the absence of metastasis, in lesions with well/moderate differentiation and without muscle invasion, ET is adequate for NAD-NETs ≤10 mm and is a viable option for 11- to 19-mm lesions.